Transfer betting can be complicated but when you get one right it’s a wonderful feeling. Unlike normal match markets or outright football betting, we can’t look at previous results or statistics to help us bet on football this way. This guide will aim to give you the reader the inside track with the January transfer window looming.
Before we delve into the inner workings of transfer betting we will first go through a breakdown of how transfers work. The first player to ever be transferred for a fee of over £100 was Scottish striker Willie Groves when he made the switch from West Bromwich Albion to Aston Villa in 1893 eight years after the legalisation of professionalism in the sport. In 2017 just 124 short years later Neymar was sold to PSG from Barcelona for €222 in what is still the most expensive transfer of all time.
The football transfer has become not just a very important factor in building a successful team but it has also become a huge factor in fan enjoyment. Some could even argue fans have now become even more obsessed with transfers than the actual football season.
For those that might have just started to get into football betting and want to bet on transfers they are a fairly simple concept. Just imagine a club going to a market where you haggle over products and you know what transfers are. One club enquires about a player the other names their price and then the negotiations begin. If the clubs agree, the player can then join the buying club.
So why should you bet on football transfers? This is actually a complicated question. Like betting on the next manager fired or then who will take their place, having your ear to the ground is very important. This can be one of the key reasons why you should bet on football transfers.
Unlike normal football betting you don’t need stats and models to try to give yourself an edge and stay ahead of the bookmakers. All you need to do is hear a rumour from the right source and you could be ready to win big. This combined with some fantastic odds are the key reasons you should consider getting involved in football transfer betting. Unlike the usual 1X2 markets football betting sites normally offer around 10 different options in their next club market. This means you can find great value for your transfer bet.
This is really not too difficult and basically the same as normal match betting. The only slightly complicated part may be finding the markets. Bookmakers may not always have the transfer market you are looking for available so make sure to keep checking back in as the transfer window approaches.
Go to the football section on your bookmakers and instead of the usual ‘match’ or ‘outright’ subsections you may be used to using instead go to ‘specials’ here you will be able to find any transfer betting odds. From here you just place your bet as usual.
As already hinted at above, transfer betting odds can be much more favourable than what you are used to compared to normal football betting odds due to the markets and options generally being better.
One key difference is how easily transfer betting odds can fluctuate and how quickly they can do so. A recent example of this is Ronaldo's transfer to Manchester United. Just as the transfer window was closing city rivals Manchester city looked certain to sign Ronaldo in an audacious move. A lot of bookmakers at the time had decided this was a done deal and had made the odds for this move so low they were unbackable.
However, at the last minute former Manchester greats got to work and convinced Ronaldo to sign for the red side of Manchester instead. Now, hindsight is a wonderful tool but even still perhaps we could have seen this coming. Ronaldo is one of United's greatest players and one of the greatest players of all time. They are also hugely aware of their image around the world. How would it look if their city rivals stole one of their greats and then went on to win trophies with them? Not very good is the answer.
So, if you were thinking on your feet around the time the Manchester city rumpus intensified and decided to place a little bet on him to end up at Manchester United instead you could have made an absolute killing. It's also a good example as to how transfer betting odds work. One day City are tiny odds to secure his signing and united huge and the next, after some stories are leaked, the odds have completely flipped.
One of the key things you need to do before starting to bet on transfers is to monitor transfer betting odds and news. A good start to this is to check out transfer betting oddschecker. Oddschecker are great for offering all sorts of odds for specific players and where they might end up next.
Your main source however, will likely be Sky transfer betting news. Sky Sports have for quite some time been the leading source for transfer news and have around the clock news leading up and during a transfer window. This of course means that Sky Bet transfer betting will offer many markets for many different potential transfers.
Most bookmakers will of course offer similar odds and prices but due to how much information Sky Sports always have on transfers it might be a good idea to check the markets and information on Sky Sports transfer betting before shopping around for value elsewhere.
January is normally the slightly quieter of the two transfer windows. Teams are midseason and a lot of the time may not want to mess with their squad. However this January we may be in for one of our busiest windows ever.
This has a lot to do with Newcastle's new takeover. They will be getting busy in the transfer window as they look to avoid relegation. There are also lots of other reasons I believe it to be busy. Conte has probably been promised money to spend on transfers at Tottenham, we have a title race so teams will want an edge and the African Cup of Nations is in January so teams may need quick and read replacements. Here are some of my predictions.
Bet365 Have a vast range of markets on everything including transfer betting
Gamblers can utilize the Betfair exchange section to get even better odds on transfers
A focus on UK markets means you can hopefully get some good odds on my predictions above at William Hill.
So now you have all the information and are ready to start some transfer betting. Make sure to keep an eye on Sky Sports and other services for all the news and also keep an eye on the bookmakers listed above. When a price starts to move do a little digging because generally there is no smoke without fire when it comes to transfers.